|
Aviation: Moderating Recovery Momentum + SG Banks: Defensively Postured To Weather Uncertainties China’s reopening since Jan 23 has injected momentum into the global aviation sector’s recovery. Now with global air travel already at about 85% of pre-pandemic levels, recovery would continue and but the pace may moderate going forward. Airlines are no long cheap and macroeconomic uncertainties remain ahead with a risk of global recession. Against this backdrop, we will present our updated view for the Regional Aviation Sector including Aviation plays in Singapore and China. Conventional wisdom suggests that interest rates have peaked and could fall precipitously as early as 2H23. The crisis engulfing US regional banks and their exposure to commercial real estate did put a cap on rises in interest rates. Unfortunately, core inflation remains elevated. Rising fiscal spending on social welfare, healthcare, defence and interest outlays cause persistent government budget deficit, which also exerts upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. We are selective buyers of Singapore Banks.Speakers' Profiles Roy is a Senior Equity Analyst covering the regional aviation sector. He has 10 years’ experience as an investment professional, including 7 years in equity research and 3 years in the corporate development (M&A and Strategy) function of an SGX-listed transportation conglomerate. Jonathan has 24 years of experience in equity research and fund management. He was ranked by the Asiamoney Brokers Poll as the No. 2 Best Analyst for Telecommunication Services in Singapore in 2017 and No. 3 Overall Earnings Estimator for Singapore in 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Analyst Awards.
|